This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering that is a free card and that I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that match. I won my first chair into it a couple weeks ago and I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will likely have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no cash game guards this week for me but I moved with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I enjoy the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I think she wins the battle and I think she is going to be the fighter going for takedowns. I don’t understand how high her ceiling is in cash games it does not really matter too much since we don’t need to strike 1st place in a double-up. I would expect about 10x from Yana in a choice win and I’ll take that all day in my money games.
GPP play of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka fights often score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I expect this to be a very fun battle, but it should be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I am always looking for no less than 10x from my fighters and at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka didn’t get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he’s got a 61-point loss to Elliott that is more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I love Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Drama of this week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight that I hope to remain standing, I have quite a bit of interest in this fight. I think it’s going to be an action-packed fight and I think someone gets pumped out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so that I think that a KO from guy would have a good chance to put them on the perfect lineup. I like it even more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to be the greater owned fighter. I will have this struggle in over half of my lineups, but that I shall probably have at least double the possession on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I really don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I will have a fantastic amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will need a finish at that wages and that I don’t see that occurring. If he wins a clear 30-27 conclusion, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his price tag which won’t win anybody a GPP. I really don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I think he utilizes his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I don’t see him filing Moraes. So, it needs to be a KO out of him to cover off that salary and I am not inclined to take that risk with my money. That is why he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 61-37 to get +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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